by | 07, Aug 2022

What Is The Best Predicator For Success?

What are the key elements that can predict someone’s success? Where they were born? When they were born? Who their parents are?

In today’s episode, Dan and Anthony will take a look at different predictors of success, and decide on the best one! As discussed in a previous episode, Warren Buffett made the majority of his wealth in only the last 10 years of his life, yet he had been investing since he was a young teenager. So does getting in to the game early count for the most towards your success?

Find out on this week’s episode of Multifamily Investing Made Simple, In Under 1o Minutes.

LEAVE A REVIEW if you liked this episode!!

Tweetable Quotes:

“It’s just so crazy to think how far we’ve come. But so much of it is a function of when we started.” -Anthony Vicino

“Just starting early versus being the best or having all the best resources at your disposal, just start early and keep doing the damn thing.” – Dan Krueger

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five rules of investing

The Five Rules of Investing

** Transcripts

[00:00:00] Anthony: Hello and welcome to multi-family investing made simple. This is the podcast. It’s all about taking the complex out of real estate investing so that you can take action today and host Anthony Sini join as always. Bye Dave, just warming up. Mm, Dan what’s that mean? Just warming up. You said that right. As we started recording, you said let’s do, let’s do this episode as a warmup.


[00:00:37] Dan: a short, it’s a short episode. We do longs. We do shorts a short it’s just more. It just seems easier going into it

[00:00:44] Anthony: a little bit less commitment overall. So lower quality. It’s just, if you didn’t know if you’re listening to this, um, as a, and you’ve been a long time podcast listener, you might not realize that we do four different.

Whereas it three episodes per week, I don’t know, four or three, something like that. We do a Tuesday long [00:01:00] episode where Dan and I, more or less just banter and go onto wild tangents for 30, 40 minutes. And then on Wednesdays we do a book deep dive, which, um, our goal is to try and save you time. So you don’t have to read a whole book.

Rarely do we actually accomplish that goal? Uh, Fridays, we do a YouTube special and then on Saturdays, which you’re listening to now, hopefully is a under 10 minute episode. Mm-hmm these are our favorite episodes, cuz we’re like in and out super fast. Give you value. Like we’ve just been talking for a minute and a half just trying to like buy some time.

I, I think

[00:01:31] Dan: honestly we don’t have much to talk about today. Honestly. I think the, the book deep dives are kind of my. Because we can never find a damn book club that actually keeps going. And this is the closest thing

[00:01:38] Anthony: we have. Yeah. Every book club we’ve been a part of. They got like halfway through a book and then disolve just stop showing up.

So we’ve decided book deep dive on Wednesdays is gonna be our book club. Hopefully you guys like it, uh, by the way, we have the sophisticated investor notes. If you go to Invictus, multifamily.com/notes, it will take you to a Dropbox folder. That’s full of like 15 notes, um, infographics. They’re awesome.

[00:01:59] Dan: So I [00:02:00] believe you recently made a claim that.


[00:02:02] Anthony: it got done the same day that is done. Yeah. So if you listen to that is this episode where I made the, I called my shot and said, I’ll get this done by the end of day. I did it. That’s impressive. Yeah. Yeah. I thought, I thought so. anytime I do the thing I say I do, uh, I I’m impressed. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:02:15] Dan: It’s not like it’s one of our core values or anything.

[00:02:17] Anthony: It’s just like, what is the core value? Number two, uh, we show up or no, we lead with value. We show up, we do what we say. Oh, number three. Yeah. Yeah. I’m leading, I’m living in alignment with Invictus’ core values. So that. But today, um, thinking of core values, values are a great way of like measuring if you’re being successful in life or not.

Cause I think it’s a way of like framing the conversation around what do you value? What do you consider to be a win? How do you know you’re succeeding at this game called life and value is kind of chalk that field. And I wanted to talk today about excluding our values and we talk about like variables of, of success.

What is the best predictor of success? And so rich [00:03:00] parents, rich parents, um, really good. Looks born, like with a jaw that could crush a Walnut. Yeah. Uh, what else, what else would you consider? Like, cuz a lot of people like think. Where you’re born. Right? Your zip code is obviously like highly tied to your, your income in life.

Um, I think there’s a lot of studies that show that college, like going to Harvard, Yale. Yeah. A lot of people would think that blue skin color is a huge one gender, another huge one. And, and again, nothing to take away from, like, if you, you know, are not a white CIS male, like you probably have a harder game ahead of you than yeah.

Um, than we did. And if your parents went to Harvard and they’re in high socioeconomic status, you’re probably gonna do pretty well. However, these, I do not feel are the best predictors of. And this is an open conversation. I’d love to have a debate on this, but I, I tweeted the other day that, uh, when you start is a better predictor of success than where you start.

And of course, like some people are gonna start further ahead than others, but generally the people who start the soonest and [00:04:00] stay in the game the longest are the ones that will inevitably find success. I, we did not, uh, podcast. Warren buffet talked about this.

[00:04:07] Dan: Yeah, we were doing the book deep dive, um, on psychology of money.

And that was the first thing I thought of when we talked about doing this, this episode was the example that we referenced when we were doing the deep dive in that book, which if you haven’t checked it out, you definitely should. Um, where there, there were some quantifications done of Warren Buffet’s, uh, track record.

Like when he started, I wanna say it was around 10 or so. He was young and he compounded at what was it like? 22, 20 3%. 20, yeah. Year annually for however many years. I mean, he’s like in his nineties and he started, you know, as a young teenager, so better part of like 80 years. He compounded at that rate and got to, I forgot the number.

Um, how many billions

[00:04:47] Anthony: is he up to? Uh, it’s at a point now where it’s silly to even count it, but it’s so many that it’s

[00:04:51] Dan: like, but he was compared to Jim Simons who has been compounding at a rate of, I think either 66 or 68%. But he started a heck of a lot later [00:05:00] mm-hmm and I forgot the numbers again, but I know that Jim Simons was effectively 68%, less rich than Warren buffet, even though his performance was, um, at least three times better.

Yeah. So that’s, I think the perfect example of, you know, just starting early versus being the best or having all the, uh, the best resources at your disposal, just start early and keep doing the damn thing. And, and I

[00:05:22] Anthony: wanted to tie this. To where you and I both started because, you know, I started with a Plex and house, hacked it with an FHA loan, put $7,000 into it.

You did a, a six unit mm-hmm , um, which is a bit harder to get into, but still, like, we did not start with 200 unit complexes, Dan and myself, we did not start really far along in the journey, but we built slowly over time. And now, you know, by the end of the year, we’ll have just around 500 units under, under management.

And it’s like, I was having lunch today with my dad and it’s like, man, it’s just so crazy to think. How far we’ve come, but so much of it is a function of when we started mm-hmm and just that we’ve been [00:06:00] doing it for a long time. And if you do something for a long time, it’s pretty hard to not be successful at it.


[00:06:06] Dan: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I’m the, one of the biggest proponents of, of just the concept of being consistent. Uh, people have heard me say this, whether it’s in, uh, uh, relation to this, uh, current business that we’re in, which is out of investing in real estate and, you know, talking about how important it is to be consistent, not even doing really big things, but just consistently doing the right things, even no matter how small they’re over and over again.

But this goes all the way back to those, uh, Uh, fitness days, uh, when I was coaching people on, on nutrition and it was, it always comes down to the same thing. It’s consistency. You don’t need to go and run a marathon or do these extreme diets. It’s like a little tiny change, uh, executed consistently over a very long period of time’s gonna re.

Incredible benefits, no matter what it is, whether you’re trying to build a business, uh, curate a good relationship, uh, lose weight, gain, weight, whatever it is you’re trying to do it all comes down to consistency. Mm-hmm in my opinion. Yeah. One

[00:06:57] Anthony: of, one of my favorite concepts is [00:07:00] to recognize that consistency beats, intensity.

So often when we get motivated, it’s so easy to just go like ham and be like, ha, I’m gonna do a million of these things. I’m just so excited. I’m gonna, I’m gonna wake up. Like at the beginning of each year, you know, we have our year’s resolutions and the next day people are going out and they’re, they haven’t ran a, a mile combined over the last three years and suddenly they’re like, I’m gonna go run five miles and then I’m gonna lift afterwards.

And they make it exactly three days because now their body’s so broken and. Because it’s so unadjusted to that amount of work that they can’t sustain it mm-hmm , and it’s like, you’re much better doing a hundred pushups every single day for a thousand days than doing a thousand pushups for one day. Like if, if you can’t show up consistently day in, day out, and that’s really what entrepreneurship investing in real estate in particular are all about.

So like, if you’re at the beginning of your journey, uh, let’s say you wanna be an active investor. You’re a young buck and you’re trying to figure out how do I get into that first asset? Just recognize it’s it could be. and if you just stick with it like that next one can stack into the next one. And [00:08:00] the next one and 10, 15 years down the road, like I wish I had started when I was 22 in real estate and then actively built a portfolio cuz like good GOs, Molly we’d be so much further along.

But yeah, I had

[00:08:10] Dan: a conversation with somebody who was interested in coming to work for us when he is, uh, done with school here. And um, the, the fact that he’s already thinking, uh, about the kinds of things he’s thinking about at his age, I was just like, I had to say I was, I was envious. I was like, I didn’t, I didn’t have that kind of stuff.

Clicking in my head and thinking entrepreneurial entrepreneurial about growth and building a business until late twenties at the earliest. Honestly, I was, you know, caught up in the, the corporate thing for a long time, but just thinking about it, I try not to think about it, but, you know, just think about what if we had like, happened upon what we’re doing now, when we’re 18, 19 years.

[00:08:47] Anthony: I can tell you that I really didn’t start thinking about any of this stuff until probably 31 32. So yeah, for me, that’s like maybe six years ago, like I started getting into entrepreneurship and building businesses, but even then I really wasn’t [00:09:00] thinking about like investing and, and building things for the future.

I was just trying to find ways to make money to, you know, get outta my van when that was like a decade ago, which yeah, super fun. Um, highly recommend. One

[00:09:10] Dan: thing I will say is I, I don’t trust the quality of decisions I would’ve made at that age. so even if I did get into this. I probably would’ve made some pretty big mistakes.

I mean, everybody does, but I don’t wanna think about what 20 year old Dan would’ve done with the, the responsibility of managing a building and, and residents and trying to run a business. So,

[00:09:28] Anthony: I don’t think I could have been trusted with it, but, but again, um, if you’re a passive investor in listening to this, the same message applies when you start is more important than where you start.

Right. So it’s not a lot of times I hear people like, oh, I don’t have enough to start investing yet. I’ll wait until I get like this much. And it’s like, no, no, if you can’t do it now with the small amounts, you won’t be able to do it later with the big amounts. You just, you won’t have the muscle, you won’t have the discipline.

And honestly, it’s better just to start with the small things incrementally in the beginning and, and just stack from there. I think we’re, I think we did it. I think we managed to fill 10 minutes. I don’t know if you filled it with 10 minutes of value. that’s gonna be for you [00:10:00] to listen or to judge and you, you go ahead and judge us harshly, go over to iTunes, drop a review, let us know like how badly did it suck.

Um, and we’ll catch you guys in the next episode.

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